Not-So-Super Tuesday
Super Tuesday was not as telling as you might hope. Of the 10 states that voted yesterday (Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Alaska, Vermont, North Dakota, Virginia, Idaho & Georgia... whew!) Mitt Romney won six, Rick Santorum won three, Newt Gingrich won one and Ron Paul didn't win any. This may seem to bode well for Romney, but when you look at the overall numbers, there is still no clear Republican frontrunner. Romney seems to do well among affluent voters, Santorum with Evangelical voters, Gingrich in the Southern states, and Paul does well with 20-35 aged voters and Independents. But don't be fooled. Just because Congressman Paul has not won a state yet, he should not be written off just yet. He has had strong finishes by coming in, or tying for second place in just under half the Super Tuesday states. Check out these results, released from CNN.com today:
Idaho: Romney: (62%), Santorum (18%), Paul (18% - TIE), Gingrich (2%)
North Dakota: Santorum (40%), Paul (28%), Romney (24%), Gingrich (8%)
Vermont: Romney (40%), Paul (25%), Santorum (24%), Gingrich (8%)
Virginia: Romney (60%), Paul (40%)
While I agree that Romney and Santorum have been piling up the wins in many early voting states, what is most important at the end of the day is the answer to the following question: Can anyone win against Barack Obama?
In theoretical match-ups, both Santorum and Gingrich would lose against Obama. Both Romeny and Paul would hypothetically be able to beat the current President. The challenge though, is that in debates, Romney would have a very hard time showing contrast with Obama, considering they agree upon many key issues, such as universal health care, and are both shown to lean to the left in fiscal policies. It would be hard to win voters away from Obama when they appear quite similar.
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